Use este identificador para citar ou linkar para este item: https://locus.ufv.br//handle/123456789/22308
Tipo: Artigo
Título: A model-based site selection approach associated with regional frequency analysis for modeling extreme rainfall depths in Minas Gerais state, southeast Brazil
Autor(es): Calijuri, Maria Lúcia
Assis, L. C.
Silva, D. D.
Rocha, E. O.
Fernandes, A. L. T.
Silva, F. F.
Abstract: Extreme rainfall data are usually scarce due to the low frequency of these events. However, prior knowledge of the precipitation depth and return period of a design event is crucial to water resource management and engineering. This study presents a model-based selection approach associated with regional frequency analysis to examine the lack of maximum daily rainfall data in Brazil. A generalized extreme values (GEV) distribution was hierarchically fitted using a Bayesian approach and data that were collected from rainfall gauge stations. The GEV model parameters were submitted to a model-based cluster analysis, resulting in regions of homogeneous rainfall regimes. Time-series data of the individual rainfall gauges belonging to each identified region were joined into a new dataset, which was divided into calibration and validation sets to estimate new GEV parameters and to evaluate model performance, respectively. The results identified two distinct rainfall regimes in the region: more and less intense rainfall extremes in the southeast and northwest regions, respectively. According to the goodness of fit measures that were used to evaluate the models, the aggregation level of the parameters in clustering influenced their performance.
Palavras-chave: Regional frequency analysis
Model-based site selection
Extreme daily rainfall
Hierarchical
Bayesian inference
Model-based cluster analysis
Return period
Editor: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Tipo de Acesso: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
URI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1481-1
http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/22308
Data do documento: Fev-2018
Aparece nas coleções:Artigos

Arquivos associados a este item:
Arquivo Descrição TamanhoFormato 
artigo.pdf
  Until 2100-12-31
Texto completo3,98 MBAdobe PDFVisualizar/Abrir ACESSO RESTRITO


Os itens no repositório estão protegidos por copyright, com todos os direitos reservados, salvo quando é indicado o contrário.